The 5th significant Zurich Axiom: On patterns

By John Sage Melbourne

Chaos is not harmful until it begins to look organized.

The world of money is one of chaos and the only patterns are the very same that exist in the froth of the ocean.

This axiom is perhaps the most important of all and is the key to ending up being a better speculator that the most educated and talented specialists.Many get abundant authors are offering the impression of order as this is what offers. Any get abundant approach can work when you are lucky,and many of the stories being offered are not based on a noise,continuous system that works and can be repeated.

Minor Axiom V: Be careful the Historian’s Trap

Expect occasion A was followed by occasion B in the past. Next time that occasion A comes around,there is absolutely no reason to presume that occasion B is about to follow.The market makes no forecasts of itself and offers no magic formula to anticipate itself.

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Minor Axiom VI: Be careful the Chartist’s impression

The false property of the chartist is that he knows that the marketplace can be forecasted if he can just determine the pattern. The fact is the simplest of all explanations: the marketplace has no patterns.A part of the chartist’s impression is the pattern line,constantly drawn in retrospection,which purports to show order in what is basically a random and disorganised time sequence of rates.Fund managers and sales people use this seeming order of pattern,normally upward,as a so called forecast tool. This is merely the basis of misconception.

Minor Axiom VIIBeware the Correlation and Causality Misconceptions

Over and once again people see cause and impact connections in the share market and even earn money on their forecasts. The connections that they see remain in reality not based on anything besides a passing association or most likely either misconception or luck.The human mind tries to find order in the chaos,however this order is not offered in the real market place.Speculative methodBe careful of seeing order where it does not exist. This does not mean that you can not discover a good bet or an helpful investment,however keep in mind that the overwhelming impact of random possibility. (Gunther does not use the term “random possibility” however instead talks of “luck”).You are constantly dealing with chaos and should be all set to respond when ever what ever is going to occur,happens.

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